The Most Open Title Race in Premier League History - Here's Why
Is this the most open title race in Premier League history?
Premier League football may have been back since July but ‘normal service resumes’ would not be the right phrase; it has been far from normal. Some might ask what has that got to do with the title race being so unpredictable and uncertain?
Hopefully this piece will answer that question and explore who the most likely team is to win this up for grabs trophy.
The first part of the question, why is this season is so different to others that have come before it, is actually a very simple answer.
There are lots more reasons and good excuses that clubs have for being so inconsistent this campaign, as there have been so many more setbacks for all Premier League clubs compared to normal.
Despite some clubs having 2000 fans for a couple of months, the large proportion of this season has been played behind closed doors.
Inevitably that has removed the home advantage, which for anyone doubting its existence, is a very real thing.
According to myfootballfacts.com there has been a higher percentage of away victories than home wins in the Premier League so far this season.
Whilst last season (despite being affected by COVID-19 and no fans at the end of the season) there was a 45% home wins and just 30% away wins.
This emphasises the fact that a ‘home advantage’ has become redundant.
However, whilst there are no guarantees in these uncertain times, there is some hope that fans will return in closer to full capacity in the back end of this campaign.
That is due to the rollout of the vaccine, which if the government’s plan is achievable, would mean that all of those at most risk of the virus would have been vaccinated by the end of February.
What this means is that the current exponential rise in cases should be on the downward turn as the year progresses.
So perhaps between the end of March and early April we could expect fans back and that could be the catalyst for a more predictable end to the season.
It would certainly be a much-needed boost for each club still in the title race and for the clubs like Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United who have full stadiums without fail and passionate supporters, it could make all the difference.
A full Anfield would surely make Liverpool the favourites again as it is a fortress for them and is an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition teams to come.
Old Trafford used to be like that too and it was starting to become a stronghold for United once again last season (when fans were in attendance) having lost just twice at home in the Premier League before the league was suspended in March.
That run had some standout games in it too, drawing 1-1 with Liverpool, the first team to take points off them last season and a 2-1 victory against former boss Jose just weeks after his arrival at Spurs.
So, could it be the current leaders and bitter rivals Manchester United and Liverpool, who will battle it out for the title with the support of their home fans in the closing months of the season?
This is where we come onto who I think will win the league based on their form so far this season and factoring in a potential return of fans.
I think if fans don’t return for whatever reason, then Manchester City would have to be deemed the favourites.
They look to be back to their dazzling best and their undeniable improvement at centre-back is what stands them out from the City of last season.
They look to be a complete team suddenly since the astonishing re-emergence of John Stones, who looks both revitalised and improved.
We are finally seeing consistent performances from him, playing the way he did when he first burst onto the scene at Everton.
His partnership with Dias has very quickly become the best and most reliable partnership in the Premier League, much to the envy of both Liverpool and Manchester United.
How much stronger would both of those sides be with a consistent centre-half partnership?
Manchester United claim to have a steady partnership in Maguire and Lindelof but it’s been evident for a while that they don’t work well together and since Bailly has returned, he has looked a much better partner for Maguire.
Whilst Liverpool would do anything to have a centre-back partnership that play alongside each other every week, something that they haven’t had in too long.
In a season where so many goals have been leaked, it would make sense for both Liverpool and Manchester United to steady the ship and bring in a centre-back, whilst the January transfer window is still open. Because come February, the door shuts and another injury to Bailly or Matip respectively could be fatal in both sides’ title credentials.
The final side that I think has an outside chance of winning the league is Spurs - under Jose they have become a hard team to beat.
I think the players who could make the difference if they can stay in the team are Ndombele who looks a different player this season and Reguilon who from what I’ve seen of, gives Spurs an extra attacking threat from full-back, a threat that Davies simply doesn’t give.
Ndombele gives them a Pogba like weapon.
In recent weeks we’ve seen all his qualities as he’s shown he’s capable of long-range goals, perfect threaded passes and powerful driving runs through midfield.
Ultimately though, Manchester City will come out triumphant in this erratic yet compelling season, as with or without fans, they are clicking into one at just the right time and in Dias they have a Van Dijk-like-wall and we all know what difference that can make.