Why Leicester City are outside favourites to win the Premier League
In 2016, Leicester City shocked the world…
5000-1.
Those famous odds certainly didn't look out of place following Leicester City's 14th place finish back in the 2014/15 season, as they faced a battle to stay in England’s top flight.
Fast-forward to 2020 and Leicester’s domestic projections have completely changed.
Having finished in a respectable 5th place to secure Europa League football, it comes as no surprise that The Foxes’ projection is to become regular Top 4 contenders.
They had a strong finish last season under the tenure of Brendan Rodgers, who looks to have met his match in a club like Leicester - with the Midlands club not having the same title winning pressures as Liverpool for example.
A lot has changed since that famous title win.
The Owner. The Manager. The Squad. The Ambition. A Global Pandemic.
Something that hasn't changed though is the excitement around Leicester City.
The openness of the 2020/21 season has provided the same atmosphere that was felt in the 2015/16 title winning season and whilst this may be enhanced due to the fact that they sit top of the table going into the international break, there are underlying stats to suggest why a second Leicester City Premier League title win is not incomprehensible.
Via LCFC.com
What the stats say…
At the time of writing this, Leicester City sit top of the Premier League on 18 points with 8 games played, after winning 6 of their fixtures.
Whilst it’s definitely still early days, they have 3 more points than they did at this stage back when they won the Premier League title in the 2015/16 season.
The fact that Leicester’s fixture list this season has been significantly more difficult than their title winning season is also testament to how good they’ve been.
With 8 games played, they’ve already faced three top six contenders in Manchester City, Arsenal and Wolves.
The Foxes have won all three of these challenging fixtures which included a thrashing of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side - a real statement of intent from Brendan Rodgers’ side.
Interestingly, Chelsea find themselves in the exact same position that Leicester City did at the same stage in the 2015/16 season, as they sit in 5th with fifteen points and the exact same record as Leicester did; W4, D3, L1.
This is definitely worth keeping an eye on, especially with the form the Chelsea have been in as of recent.
Whilst Leicester have more points at this stage than their title winning season, they also boast much better attacking and defending numbers.
At this stage in the 2015/16 season, Claudio Ranieri’s Foxes had scored an impressive 17 goals - which meant they were the second highest scorers in the league.
However, defensively they were frail and had the joint third worst defensive record in the league - meaning there was a stark contrast between their attacking and defensive productivity.
Fast forward to the same stage in the 2020/21 season and Leicester are the joint third highest scorers in the league with 18 goals - tied with Liverpool and Aston Villa with only Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea above them.
Whilst their attacking output is consistent in comparison to their title winning season at the same stage, it’s the defence that has so often won Leicester their games this season.
With just nine goals conceded, they are joint first in the league for the lowest amount of goals conceded - currently tied with Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa.
Not only is this a stark contrast to their title winning season, it also demonstrates an element of control, which has allowed the Foxes to so often close out games comfortably with their usual five-at-the-back formation proving to be effective.
What’s even more impressive is the fact that they sold Ben Chilwell to Chelsea and have also been without last season’s key players for the entirety of this season; Caglar Soyuncu, Ricardo Pereira and Jonny Evans, whilst new signing Timothy Castagne has also been out - meaning that youngsters James Justin and Luke Thomas have had to step in along with Ol’ Reliables Christian Fuchs and Marc Albrighton.
So far, Brendan Rodgers has done a terrific job at Leicester City and with the way that the club is run with a clear vision, emphasis on teamwork and excellent level of recruitment, there is no reason as to why Leicester City cannot go all the way.
Especially in a season that has looked so open.